The security situation in Sweden

Sweden's presence in the Arctic

Since the end of 2025, the Swedish Armed Forces have been part of a new NATO operational area, JFC Norfolk. The area stretches from North America to the Finnish and Norwegian border with Russia, according to the Swedish Armed Forces' website.

Seven of the eight Arctic countries are NATO members, with Russia being the eighth.
The intention is for Sweden to participate in the recurring Danish exercise Arctic Endurance during the year, which aims to strengthen security in the area and practise the defence of NATO's northern flank.

A large part of Sweden's territory is geographically located in the Arctic. Climate change has made the Arctic highly interesting. As the ice melts, a new sea is opening up. This means that new shipping lanes and natural resources are becoming available, which in turn is leading to increased competition between the superpowers.

Almost 50 per cent of the Arctic landmass is located on Russian territory. This means that Russia has a very long coastline on the Arctic Ocean. The ice there has served as a natural protective barrier for Russia, but now that it is melting, Russia perceives this as a threat. In the event of a conflict between the superpowers, Sweden will be affected, according to the Swedish Armed Forces' website.

Assessment of the situation near the Swedish borders

The Russian invasion of Ukraine affects Sweden's security. However, the risk of an armed attack against Sweden is currently assessed as low. At the same time, there is an increased risk of influence operations and other hostile actions. There has been sabotage of undersea infrastructure, cyber attacks are recurring and there are ongoing political influence campaigns against Sweden.

The Swedish Armed Forces are following developments closely and monitoring Swedish territory and neighbouring areas around the clock.

Sweden and NATO

Sweden is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defence alliance. Sweden applied for membership in light of the changed security situation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Swedish Government believes that a membership of NATO is the best way to safeguard the country's security.

The Swedish Security Service on the security situation in Sweden

The Swedish Security Service assesses that the security situation in Sweden is serious and that there is a significant risk that the situation may deteriorate further.

Other countries or groups in other countries may try to harm Sweden through, for example, espionage, sabotage, influence campaigns or cyber attacks. The Swedish Security Service writes that Russia takes greater risks when it comes to carrying out actions abroad. This also applies to sabotage directed against Sweden.

Terrorist threat

The threat level for terrorist attacks in Sweden is three on a five-point scale. This represents an elevated threat.